tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post2571911429056904402..comments2024-03-23T12:05:13.464-07:00Comments on Ideas: Pretending that Good News is Bad NewsDavid Friedmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06543763515095867595noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-27883505565228915272020-07-23T15:13:23.326-07:002020-07-23T15:13:23.326-07:00Are you assuming that death, sometime within the f...Are you assuming that death, sometime within the first few months after infection, is the only bad outcome that matters? We don't know that at all. It's a weird, nasty, unpredictable, poorly understood virus. Never getting infected is strongly preferable to getting infected, even if you have no obvious symptoms.Alannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-78229761278407819642020-07-22T12:44:53.094-07:002020-07-22T12:44:53.094-07:00If you're reopening because you don't thin...If you're reopening because you don't think that the disease is very harmful or because you think it's hopeless to prevent an outbreak, then learning that it's more widespread is pretty much good news.<br /><br />But if you're reopening because you think you know how to be careful to prevent an outbreak, then learning that it's more widespread is bad news.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-80743957631410832412020-07-22T04:45:13.059-07:002020-07-22T04:45:13.059-07:00I tried to post this blog post to Twitter. It woul...I tried to post this blog post to Twitter. It wouldn't let me. I wonder what that is about.missprismhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10207144740163390576noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-40655259400496165612020-07-22T02:13:33.461-07:002020-07-22T02:13:33.461-07:00So i do not believe this is what the reporter did,...So i do not believe this is what the reporter did, but there is a way this data, even if it increases your expectation of number of infected, can decrease the probability herd immunity is the right strategy.<br /><br />It could be that you before reading you believed that you had to have 20 (picked arbitrarily, any number above 13 would work) times as many cases as reported for herd immunity to be the optimal strategy.<br /><br />Then this data could make you update your priors, resulting in a posterior with the following 2 properties.<br />1. the expectation of the number of infected is higher for the posterior than the prior<br />2. the probability that the number of infected is above 20 times the reported numbers is lower according to the posterior compared to the prior.<br /><br />Again it is rather unlikely this is what the article actually did, more an interesting idea to keep in mind.Oskar Mathiasennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-35572167072377989642020-07-21T20:40:02.387-07:002020-07-21T20:40:02.387-07:00I am not sure this necessarily reflects anti-Trump...I am not sure this necessarily reflects anti-Trump bias because the same thing is true in my country and - from what I can tell - pretty much of the entire world. I just think readers go after the gloom and doom stories and journalists respond accordingly. For example, a lot of coverage on covid reported asymptomatic infected as being also potential carriers as if this was something new in respiratory diseases. Many other things were reported as unique of sars-cov-2, but which are actually transversal to other coronaviruses (like the lower immunity time) and even other pathogens. I think the media now has competition from social media platforms and so needs to be more and more outrageous to capture eyeballs.Ricardo Cruzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07754354130654677528noreply@blogger.com