tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post527855680615114328..comments2024-03-23T12:05:13.464-07:00Comments on Ideas: Mortality from the Herd Immunity Strategy, a BOTE Estimate: Second TryDavid Friedmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06543763515095867595noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-69620228708636122482020-11-01T21:53:18.145-08:002020-11-01T21:53:18.145-08:00Bloggophereo:
One useful thing would be a mechani...Bloggophereo:<br /><br />One useful thing would be a mechanism by which individuals could easily show either that they had had the disease and were now cured and presumptively immune, or that they had recently tested negative. Both groups, especially the first, could then be selectively employed in jobs where not being contagious was especially important, such as working with an old folks home, with a salary bonus. One possible result would be to give young adults, for whom the risk is very low, an incentive to get infected in order to get such a job. That would be a more selective version of the herd immunity approach.David Friedmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06543763515095867595noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-78447521385916422302020-10-26T09:17:46.826-07:002020-10-26T09:17:46.826-07:00David, Off-Topic, but have you expressed your thou...David, Off-Topic, but have you expressed your thoughts anywhere on what should be done, if anything, to help the economy in general, and especially impacted industries (travel, restaurants) in particular? Would love to hear your opinion here. <br /><br />- BobboccioBloggophereohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17690576489679408678noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-37209243158614412582020-10-26T01:27:58.162-07:002020-10-26T01:27:58.162-07:00The link did not appear.
https://www.quora.com/Wha...The link did not appear.<br />https://www.quora.com/What-will-it-take-for-the-United-States-to-overcome-COVID-19-if-no-successful-vaccine-is-available-within-five-years/answer/Steven-FowkesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-61360116583778550422020-10-26T01:27:17.605-07:002020-10-26T01:27:17.605-07:00Dear Professor Friedman,
Please, would you read th...Dear Professor Friedman,<br />Please, would you read this comment by chemist S. Fowkes?<br /><br />It seems to me that your calculations could be very different if there was a cure, even if it was unpopular with the Medical Doctors. Having a real cure –for example, vtiamn C– would render irrelevant both strategies, namely the "quarantine until mass vaccination which may take years" and the "focused protection which may kill people" which Professor M. Kulldorff has been advocating for since March.<br /><br />Many times in the past have Doctors become obsessed with a purported cure (leeches, mercury) to the exclusion of anything else. Pride seems to be a problem sometimes. Unlike many other things, vitamin C seems to be harmless. Just because of that I think trying out vitamin C as a cure should be considered appropriate.<br /><br />I propose that everyone pretends that the compound "sodium ascorbate" is a new synthetic drug discovered by accident, and the State grants a nice patent on it, after coming up with a nice, catchy new name. If this small lie meant to boost the revenues from selling the cure, is what we need to save many, many, many lives, I would vote for it right away.<br /><br />Is it possible to save millions by corrupting the Law a tiny little bit?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-73771710711995012682020-10-24T16:14:44.901-07:002020-10-24T16:14:44.901-07:00Michael Wolf - You are reading that right; the med...Michael Wolf - You are reading that right; the median IFR in the paper is .23%. The survey does include a study from Sweden, however, so that is the number I quoted. Given that rate aligns roughly with the CDC estimate, it would imply Sweden is a reasonable control for the model.<br /><br />One other note: Sweden publishes their ICU utilization (https://www.icuregswe.org/en/data--results/covid-19-in-swedish-intensive-care/). That should provide good data to check the model assumptions/inputs.<br />Mark Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-67492939700377297392020-10-24T11:02:12.680-07:002020-10-24T11:02:12.680-07:00Unless I am completely misunderstanding it, the li...Unless I am completely misunderstanding it, the link to the study Mark P posted gives an IFR of 0.27%, not 0.57%.<br /><br />"Across 51 locations, the median COVID-19 infection fatality rate was 0.27% (corrected 0.23%)." - directly from his link to the Ioannidis serological study.<br /><br />The CDC currently estimates the following:<br />COVID19 <br />0-19: 0.003% <br />20-49: 0.02% <br />50-69: 0.5% <br />70+: 5% <br /><br />Source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.htmlMichael Wolfnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-60074762871516404562020-10-22T19:43:39.057-07:002020-10-22T19:43:39.057-07:00Dr. Friedman - I see that Sweden just today remove...Dr. Friedman - I see that Sweden just today removed their recommendations specifically for those 70+; they now default to the recommendations for everybody (https://www.thelocal.se/20201022/sweden-scraps-coronavirus-recommendations-for-over-70s).<br /><br />That means your model of isolating the elderly will start to diverge from the Sweden experience, as those 70+ will feather into the broader society more. But it still seems that your model should be applicable to the ~650 <70 who died since the pandemic started.Mark Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-45828524951275726442020-10-22T10:05:33.331-07:002020-10-22T10:05:33.331-07:00You assume that we are capable of quarantine. That...You assume that we are capable of quarantine. That is the basic problem.<br /><br />If we simply quarantined everyone everyone who tested positive, or even just everyone with obvious symptoms, we would be in much better shape. This is a much smaller population than those over 70.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-59758514752306720602020-10-21T21:21:21.178-07:002020-10-21T21:21:21.178-07:00Just noticed it is easy to find the breakdown of d...Just noticed it is easy to find the breakdown of deaths in Sweden by age (e.g. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/). As a rough correction of the actual mortality data in Sweden for your model, it seems you could subtract out the 70+ deaths (assume they were protected and survived).<br /><br />Looks like that site gives 5269 70+. That leaves 653 deaths for your model to account for, from the start of March until now.Mark Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-40699023819705722812020-10-21T21:04:08.412-07:002020-10-21T21:04:08.412-07:00Dr. Friedman - Have you considered using Sweden as...Dr. Friedman - Have you considered using Sweden as a control for your model? They have, generally, followed the advice offered in the Great Barrington Declaration throughout the entire pandemic (schools never closed, no masks, very light business regulation if any, etc). They do criticize themselves for not more effectively isolating the elderly at the beginning, so their actual numbers are going to be notably worse than a model that assumes perfect protection of the elderly.<br /><br />The WHO just published a survey of the known seroprevalence studies (https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf), and it computes an IFR of .57% (comparable to the CDC aggregate) and seroprevalence of 6.3% in Sweden in late May. That IFR is comparable to the CDC estimates in aggregate.<br /><br />Seems that if your model is to be predictive, it should be able to explain the trajectory in Sweden (https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths?country=~SWE). They have had no appreciable death count since the end of July. And for your modeling purposes, they never had excess pressure on their health care system. They did prepare for overflow capacity at the peak, but my understanding is they never had to use it.Mark Pnoreply@blogger.com