tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post1207369802246821028..comments2024-03-23T12:05:13.464-07:00Comments on Ideas: Third Party StrategiesDavid Friedmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06543763515095867595noreply@blogger.comBlogger23125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-74671721554782604482012-11-14T17:15:52.413-08:002012-11-14T17:15:52.413-08:00Why couldn't Johnson even pull 5% of the vote ...Why couldn't Johnson even pull 5% of the vote in New Mexico, where the voters know him best, and many have already voted for him before?<br /><br />Perhaps it's the association with the Libertarian Party that is hurting him.Newtnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-74140689041933240802012-11-12T09:12:59.153-08:002012-11-12T09:12:59.153-08:00I would have thought he would at least have presse...I would have thought he would at least have pressed his case harder in New Mexico, where not only are the voters' votes not relevant to the electoral college winner, but many of those voters have previously voted for him and still like him. Indeed, I wonder whether he could have made a feasible strategy of actually trying to win New Mexico's electoral votes, which would have garnered more attention than an extra percentage point of the popular vote.dWjhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12072494989829344049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-52677950955107737482012-11-10T01:15:53.477-08:002012-11-10T01:15:53.477-08:00Speaking as a woman "Wrong wrong wrong wrong ...Speaking as a woman "Wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong right-maybe wrong..."<br /><br />I wish they wouldn't say "Statistically a higher proportion of women than men voted for Democrats in these specific cases" and then use that as the basis for relatively unsupported assumptions about why. Did they run any correlation checks - for example, with being lower-income? (Soak-the-rich-help-the-poor rhetoric like Obama's would obviously appeal more to those who considered themselves in the latter category. I don't know if those particular variables <i>are</i> correlated, though I've heard it claimed.) <br /><br />This is a popular article, so there's no discussion of statistical methods, so I can't check them. Given that A) they make no mention of looking for correlations, B) they're in the business of telling effective stories, and this makes a more effective story if you don't consider any other potential reason for the observed results, and C) their wording is often vague and their examples seemingly random, allowing for cherry-picking, I see no reason to give them the benefit of the doubt.<br /><br />(Additional reason to be suspicious: in a race for the senate between a man and a woman, they consider the fact that the former spoke against abortion more important in explaining why the latter got more women voting for her than the fact that the latter... is a woman? Shouldn't matter, but probably will to a lot of people. And they didn't even consider the possibility.)<br /><br />... and your extrapolation went far beyond even the article. They referred to collectivist vs. individualist; you referred to emotions vs. logic. If you have any proof on that specifically, I would be happy to see it, but I do not think an increased tendency to vote for democrats counts. Until then, thank you for linking me your source, but I remain thoroughly unconvinced.Rebecca Friedmannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-50372560013478240922012-11-09T03:08:03.026-08:002012-11-09T03:08:03.026-08:00Rebecca, I forgot to mention the source :) http:/...Rebecca, I forgot to mention the source :) http://edition.cnn.com/2012/11/08/opinion/carroll-women-election/index.html?iref=allsearchTheVidrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09344788573052372170noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-66717039422302706122012-11-09T02:33:54.159-08:002012-11-09T02:33:54.159-08:00Re: TheVidra,
I cannot tell whether you are being...Re: TheVidra,<br /><br />I cannot tell whether you are being serious, because that sounds almost like a caricature of gender views, but... half the libertarians I know are women. I think on average, more than half my acquaintance is female. (Probably because I myself am... guess what!) I haven't noticed, either in myself or in them, any particular tendency to make choices based on emotion rather than logic; on the contrary, they seem about equal to the men I know in that regard. Some individuals better, some worse, on average about even.<br /><br />If you were serious... what data do you have? If you were not... sorry for not getting the joke, but you combined it with more serious-sounding arguments, so I found it hard to tell.Rebecca Friedmannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-7814797165412639822012-11-08T14:56:43.577-08:002012-11-08T14:56:43.577-08:00I think no strategy will work for libertarian-mind...I think no strategy will work for libertarian-minded people, especially with the demographic trends going on. Women are turned off by libertarianism in general (hard economic reasoning does not appeal to emotions like populist rhetoric, the role of the alpha leader who will save the planet is missing from the equation, there is no sense of protection when everyone is left to fend for themselves etc). Blacks tend to vote Democratic even if the party nominates a Klansman, Latinos lean Democratic also. The general moral fiber in the US is changing toward a more entitlement mentality, as well as dependency on a powerful entity; the individualism that defined America is waning (at least from my experiences with the various generations I studied with and taught). As education has been made available to the masses, it has been watered down to be inclusive of everyone. Few are taught skills that enable them to think critically. As women become more involved in civic life, there will be less focus on reason and more on emotions. It's only natural. So whichever strategies Johnson or the next liberty-oriented public figures end up taking to spread the message are bound to be worthless - the era of libertarian thought has passed.TheVidrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09344788573052372170noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-45286920714839694042012-11-08T14:56:32.986-08:002012-11-08T14:56:32.986-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.TheVidrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09344788573052372170noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-47605497760105841672012-11-08T14:56:08.492-08:002012-11-08T14:56:08.492-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.TheVidrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09344788573052372170noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-25898079198347743502012-11-08T10:16:35.121-08:002012-11-08T10:16:35.121-08:00This map could help determine whether the strategy...This map could help determine whether the strategy you impute to Johnson worked: http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results<br /><br />Looks like he drew more than average in Colorado (1.3%), but less than average in Ohio and Florida (0.9% and 0.5%, respectively). <br /><br />He seems to have done best in Western non-battleground states, particularly those that are strongly Republican, like Montana and Wyoming. That would lend support to the other strategy you describe (which I advocated in a pre-election post on my blog). Glen Whitmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01425907466575991113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-2090222084097330192012-11-08T04:24:39.207-08:002012-11-08T04:24:39.207-08:00Laird,
If, on the other hand, he really is follow...Laird,<br /><br /><i>If, on the other hand, he really is following a "spoiler" strategy, that could come back to hurt the Libertarians in a big way. If Johnson gets enough votes in, say, Ohio to tip the balance to Obama, and it costs Romney the election, that could poison the well for Libertarians everywhere for decades to come. There are plenty of people still angry with Ross Perot for throwing the 1992 election to Bill Clinton, and with Ralph Nader throwing the 2000 election to GW Bush. Does Johnson (and the LP in general) really want that albatros around its neck?</i><br /><br />Do you think those people would ever vote or become libertarian otherwise?martinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-42662540085488601802012-11-07T09:48:48.035-08:002012-11-07T09:48:48.035-08:00Yeah, I guess having 30 governors, the House, and ...Yeah, I guess having 30 governors, the House, and losing the Presidency in swing states by 1-2% apiece just means the GOP is dead!<br /><br />Romney's single biggest error was his coming out in one day reinforcing three nationalist positions: tough on China, oil independence, and unapologetic belligerence in foreign affairs. Had he not taken those stances -- stances which gain zero votes, worry moderates who otherwise want a change from Obama, and provide no distinction from Obama at all save for shrillness, which looks like irrationality -- he would be president-elect right now.<br /><br />Indeed, I hope that the GOP swings libertarian and uses Paul and Johnson as examples of which way to lean. But simply shutting their mouths on nationalist positions during the general election will bring enough libertarian-leaning moderates to win.MikePnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-1068068132217973062012-11-07T08:13:22.328-08:002012-11-07T08:13:22.328-08:00With all due respect to Gary Johnson, getting 5% i...With all due respect to Gary Johnson, getting 5% is less important now with an Establishment Republican loss. The Establishment Republicans are probably at its weakest position right now and primed for being taken over by the libertarian leaning members of the party. Duverger's Law necessitates a 2nd party in our first-past-the-post voting system, and we may be in the process of getting one.js290noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-40174858525223970472012-11-06T23:19:00.010-08:002012-11-06T23:19:00.010-08:00The situation in Ohio isn't clear--it depends ...The situation in Ohio isn't clear--it depends where Johnson's votes came from. If two thirds of them were from Romney and one third from Obama, then Johnson dropping out would leave the election exactly even. <br /><br />Also, it looks as though Obama didn't need Ohio to win.David Friedmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06543763515095867595noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-70458445493094223372012-11-06T21:23:48.045-08:002012-11-06T21:23:48.045-08:00Above comment deleted because I got party affiliat...Above comment deleted because I got party affiliations wrong the first time.<br /><br />At current count it looks like Johnson (whom I also voted for) will play the part of spoiler in Ohio.<br /><br />It also looks like district 9 in AZ will go Dem because of the Libertarian candidate; Gammill (L) got 8 times the difference between the Democrat (Senima) and Parker (R)Mark Horninghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09079931981472939913noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-2435477419920151462012-11-06T21:21:46.368-08:002012-11-06T21:21:46.368-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Mark Horninghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09079931981472939913noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-2383423784037843142012-11-06T21:06:45.188-08:002012-11-06T21:06:45.188-08:00If he's talking about campaigning for national...If he's talking about campaigning for national office... he's pretty much shown he's clueless and not worth voting for.<br /><br />You want a 3rd party to get recognition? Stop trying to shout "me, me, me" and fighting above your weight class. Get out in your community, county, and state, and *show* me you have what it takes.<br /><br />Until you do that, until you prove you actually want to serve the people of this country... you can languish down in the dumps with the other comedy candidates.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-41838277792331882852012-11-06T19:45:24.493-08:002012-11-06T19:45:24.493-08:00A system of voting priorities ("I vote for Jo...A system of voting priorities ("I vote for Johnson first, but in event of his not having a chance, Romney") if possible (I've heard one described) would seem to me better - do you really think Johnson is only drawing from people who prefer Romney? I'm concerned that declaring who the votes go to if the candidate didn't have a chance <i>on the level of the candidate, rather than the individual vote</i> would lead to fewer votes for the candidate, as you would essentially be voting for him <i>and</i> his second choice.Rebecca Friedmannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-2055974875557873232012-11-06T17:22:51.701-08:002012-11-06T17:22:51.701-08:00Maybe we should pass a law (constitutional amendme...Maybe we should pass a law (constitutional amendment) that says a third-party candidate who does not garner enough votes to win, can assign their votes to the candidate of their choice.<br /><br />Then, if they want, a third-party candidate could pledge who they would assign their votes to (assuming they are not going to be close to winning) before voting occurs. That way voters can vote for third-party candidates in a sort of quasi-protest while still knowing their votes are not going to give the election to the candidate they lest like.Ryanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01208509558310646795noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-55577009684399594432012-11-06T17:08:49.424-08:002012-11-06T17:08:49.424-08:00Johnson may be following a hybrid strategy...
He ...Johnson may be following a hybrid strategy...<br /><br />He will get the most media attention with this 5% campaign in battleground states because he could spoil the election for a frontrunner. That attention could lead people in decided states to choose to vote for him because they reason on their own that it won't hurt anything.MikePnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-7706950843223444582012-11-06T14:45:04.170-08:002012-11-06T14:45:04.170-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Jonathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15661031964537092605noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-37143259815432345012012-11-06T14:40:46.467-08:002012-11-06T14:40:46.467-08:00The implication of both comments so far is that li...The implication of both comments so far is that libertarians, while liking Johnson, will much prefer Romney to Obama. Are Romney's actions as president really likely to be much more libertarian than Obama's?<br /><br />If so, this seems to be an argument for some kind of transferable-vote electoral system.Jonathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15661031964537092605noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-19113609613068200302012-11-06T13:41:44.193-08:002012-11-06T13:41:44.193-08:00I live in South Carolina, also a hard-core Republi...I live in South Carolina, also a hard-core Republican state, and also voted for Johnson. I agree with your comment: if he actually wants to garner a meaninful number of votes it should be in the one-party states where people want to "send a message". If, on the other hand, he really is following a "spoiler" strategy, that could come back to hurt the Libertarians in a big way. If Johnson gets enough votes in, say, Ohio to tip the balance to Obama, and it costs Romney the election, that could poison the well for Libertarians everywhere for decades to come. There are plenty of people still angry with Ross Perot for throwing the 1992 election to Bill Clinton, and with Ralph Nader throwing the 2000 election to GW Bush. Does Johnson (and the LP in general) really want that albatros around its neck?Lairdnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-55676707761695009562012-11-06T12:55:28.925-08:002012-11-06T12:55:28.925-08:00I live in Texas, and voted for Gary Johnson as wel...I live in Texas, and voted for Gary Johnson as well. If there was any chance that Romney/Obama was close here, I would have voted for Romney to avoid the horror of more Obama selected justices.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com