The Health Care Bill: Some Tactical Thoughts
The obvious policy is to have a vote and lose it. But there is a problem. The reason she is having a hard time rounding up votes is that many representatives believe a vote for the bill will substantially reduce their chances of reelection this fall. Presumably the leadership either disagrees or considers it a price worth paying to get the bill passed.
If the bill ends up with 212 votes, they will have paid the price and gotten nothing for it. That suggests that, if the bill is not going to pass, it is better for the Democrats not to vote on it. Not being myself an expert on the rules and customs of the House, I have no clear idea of how easy that would be to arrange at the last minute. But it is still an intriguing possibility.
Which suggests a prediction. Either the bill will pass, or it will fail by only one or two votes--too few for the result to be predicted with confidence. Or it will, somehow, not get voted on.
Which is why I decided to put this post up now. Predicting things before they happen is more interesting than explaining them afterwards.