How Will Sandy Affect the Election?
I'm curious as to whether there is any past evidence of the effect of natural catastrophes on electoral outcomes. I could imagine that a hurricane with widespread damage might make people feel insecure and so more inclined for stasis rather then change, leading to more votes for the incumbents. Alternatively, people might operate with a rule of thumb blaming all current bad outcomes on whoever is currently in power on the assumption that actual causal connections are too hard to work out, and so be more likely to vote against the incumbents. I have been told (but have been unable to confirm) that there is a phrase in Italian that translates as "It's raining again—pig of a government."
Someone must have studied the question, and perhaps one of my readers can point me at the result. Alternatively, some of you may have other ideas for possible linkages in either direction.