Wednesday, March 02, 2016

Maybe the Republicans Shouldn't Unite Yet

There is a lot of talk at this point about the desirability of Republicans who don't want Trump to be nominated uniting around a single candidate. One problem with that proposal is that the candidate that the establishment wants to unite around is at this point Rubio, while the only candidate anywhere close to Trump in delegate count is Cruz.

But there is another problem. Suppose all but one of Trump's opponents pulls out of the race. Some of their votes in future primaries will go to Trump. He is currently getting close to half the votes in primaries—with those extra votes he might go over half. That could easily result in his getting to the convention with a majority of the delegates, at which point the game is over.

The analysis is complicated by the fact that some primaries are winner take all. For those, Trump is better off with multiple opponents splitting the vote. But for primaries where delegates are apportioned to candidates roughly in proportion to the votes they get, multiple opponents result in fewer delegates going to Trump. And the case of winner take all primaries is complicated by the fact that different candidates are popular in different states, as yesterday's results make clear. If Rubio drops out, Trump takes Florida. If Cruz had dropped out, Trump would have had a plurality in Texas, and there may be future winner take all states with the same pattern.

Of course, even if Trump doesn't arrive at the convention with a majority, he may still win. Christie is the first major figure to switch sides but may not be the last.

13 Comments:

At 12:21 PM, March 02, 2016, Blogger Nicolás Ferreira said...

Pretty much all of those points have been studied and analysed to death by Nate Silver and his crew.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/

 
At 12:39 PM, March 02, 2016, Blogger Kim Mosley said...

I like your ability to look at hot topics with a cool and logical mind. So many let their passions get in the way of seeing clearly the issues. Thanks!

 
At 6:15 PM, March 02, 2016, Blogger Theodore Malter said...

Trump is already far ahead in Florida: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/florida-republican/#polls-only

 
At 6:52 PM, March 02, 2016, Blogger Attempting to be a Skeptical Thinker said...

In 2008 many of us criticized Barrack Obama for the content of his available record and history. We pointed out how throughout his life he was allied to leftist ideologies and we saw no hope that he was anything like the left of center moderate that he claimed himself to be. After his election, there was no hint of the center. "Elections have consequences..." No truer words were spoken by him. 7 years later we have a record of divisive and Progressive acts to show how right we were.

And here we are with Mr. Trump. Look at his record. Listen to the interviews he has given over the years before running for President. There you will find the hints you need to understand what sort of President he might be. From a libertarian or conservative perspective, there isn't much to find hope in.

I am overwhelmed with sadness. What makes me sad is that we have finally and perhaps irrevocably stunted the reasoning capacity of a sufficient number of Americans that politics has simply become a carnival show playing itself out for TV ratings. I fear it's beyond fixing. There's no painless way to roll back the breadth and scope of government at this point. It's either revolution or ruin and likely a large measure of both when our self-inflicted economic tsunami finally breaks over us. I see a future where millions will again die in the name of perfecting humanity.

My only hope is that some day, a human society will rise that finally understands and can manage those aspects of human nature that sentence us to these perptual pendulum swings between freedom and enslavement to the state.

 
At 4:08 AM, March 03, 2016, Blogger Gordon said...

"7 years later we have a record of divisive and Progressive acts to show how right we were. "

I am curious, what are the top, say, five acts by Obama that reveal a Progressive rather than a "left of center moderate"?

 
At 6:47 AM, March 03, 2016, Blogger Attempting to be a Skeptical Thinker said...

Just a couple off the top of my head:

Affordable Care Act
Iran Deal
Disastrous handling of Iraq stand-down, creating a vacuum for ISIS to form and grow
Attempting to close GITMO
Horrific state of race relations
EPA Legacy
Energy production issues
Useless AGW regulations that cost us dearly, but admittedly make zero positive contributions

And through this all, he's lied like a Progressive front to back in order to conceal or misdirect from his true agenda. I have learned to completely mistrust Progressives over the years. In my personal experience, the majority of Progressives are only honest about their true aims when among other Progressives. To anyone else they will baldly lie about their true goals while stealthily advancing their true aims. I find it reprehensible and profoundly dishonest. I believe this to be true because Progressives understand how horrific non-progressives will find their true end goals and should they be honest it would retard their efforts.

 
At 7:20 AM, March 03, 2016, OpenID dagonell said...

What I find interesting is the number of Republicans that have totally switched sides and are endorsing Hillary and Bernie. Lindsey Graham has stated it outright, "My own party has gone bat-$#!T crazy."

 
At 8:37 AM, March 03, 2016, Blogger Attempting to be a Skeptical Thinker said...

And the carnival rolls on...

 
At 9:03 AM, March 03, 2016, Blogger bruce said...

'Republicans that have totally switched sides'

RINOs lose the fake name! O Noes! What can Trump do that's worse than invading the wrong country? (Or countries). Or worse than the Clintons taking a billion dollar bribe from Microsoft's competitors to sue Microsoft and break the Dot-com boom? Worse than Ralph Nader and Pat Moynihan did to Detroit? Worse than JFK breaking US Steel? Worse than when Jimmy Carter's judge broke Bell Labs? Worse than Hillary Clinton putting medical research companies on her enemies list? Worse than Obamacare running Pfizer out of the country?

 
At 9:15 PM, March 03, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Affordable Care Act
Iran Deal
Disastrous handling of Iraq stand-down, creating a vacuum for ISIS to form and grow
Attempting to close GITMO
Horrific state of race relations
EPA Legacy
Energy production issues
Useless AGW regulations that cost us dearly, but admittedly make zero positive contributions


Let's see - ACA is Romneycare is Heritagecare; Iran deal is better than another pointless war; Bush signed the SOFA; Gitmo is a stain on everything America stands for; Obama isn't the white cops shooting unarmed blacks; clean air and clean water is a real pain, eh; America's domestic energy production is in better shape than it's been in years; what "AGW regulations"?

Obama has been a center-right moderate, hardly the "Progressive" bogeyman the right (and its libertarian adjuncts) have made him out to be.

 
At 6:00 AM, March 05, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Centre-right?

The 'right' us now indistinguishable in its policies from the Left... so there is no 'right', everyone these days is a 'Social Democrat' (it is the fashionable word for Socialism - lite version - and instilled into developing minds in all educational establishments) by behaviour if not pretense.

Being left or right of centre is moot.

Progressive... this describes a cancer.

 
At 2:01 PM, March 07, 2016, Blogger Cathy Raymond said...

Re: Anonymous "The 'right' is now indistinguishable in its policies from the Left..." If so, there would be no alarm about Trump potentially winning the nomination. For that matter, if that were so, every politician and every American commenter would be in agreement.

 
At 1:17 PM, March 08, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

@Cathy Raymond

Different anonymous here. What you say is correct only if people base their political views mainly on which policies they prefer, rather than on which cultural group they identify with.

 

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