Tuesday, November 08, 2016

Wishful Thinking on Election Night

I have been saying for some time that the least bad outcome there is any reasonable chance of getting from this unfortunate election is Hilary Clinton in the White House but both houses of congress held by the Republicans. It occurred to me that one possible way of getting there would be if Trump voters, including ones not normally Republican, voted for the whole ticket, while anti-Trump Republicans confirmed their party loyalty by voting for every Republican on the ticket other than Trump.

I am posting this now as results are just beginning to come in so that if it turns out that way, which seems unlikely but not impossible, I can claim to have predicted it--or at least raised the possibility. One early result that might be a tiny bit of evidence is the early vote in Ohio, which shows the Republican senator believed to be at risk being reelected by a sizable margin while Clinton leads Trump, also by a sizable margin, although apparently not enough for the news organizations to have called the race yet.


Attempting to be a Skeptical Thinker said...

I hope that in 4 years we can say "Just like it took a Carter to usher in a Reagan, it took an Obama to bring in a Trump". He can't ever be perfect, but he just might be good enough. I'm just sad that our monetary bubble will probably pop on his watch and Trump will have to deal with decades of mismanagement.

John D. Bell said...

Regrettably, the Republicans ran the table. Therefore, your plan to have a "creative stalemate" (if I am not putting words in your mouth) won't happen.

Any further thoughts on how this one-sided scheme will play out?

David Friedman said...

John: I have a more recent post on ways it could turn out well, although that's not my best guess at what will happen.

Rex Little said...

From the start, my preference was for Trump over Clinton (though my vote went to Johnson), because my worst nightmare is an activist President (from either party) combined with a compliant Congress. I figure Trump will face opposition from establishment Republicans in Congress as well as from Democrats, so we've got a shot at gridlock no matter which party is nominally in control. Clinton with a Republican Congress might have been the best outcome, but if the winds shifted and she got a Democrat majority, it would be Dubya all over again. Or LBJ.

David Friedman said...


The problem is that Trump might do things Democrats like, in which case he could have support from ideological Democrats and loyal Republicans.